Circum Spective

WHAT HAPPENED?
I thought they said the recession was over.

A quarterly report released Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association found that more than 13 percent of American homeowners with a mortgage have fallen behind on their payments or are in foreclosure.
That's another new record, and an indication that the foreclosure crisis is still getting worse as layoffs continue to soar.

The record-high numbers released Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association are being driven by borrowers with traditional fixed-rate mortgages, rather than the shady subprime loans with adjustable rates that kicked off the mortgage crisis. Past experience indicates that foreclosures probably won't stop rising until about six months after layoffs peak. And economists don't expect unemployment, now at 9.4 percent, to crest until this winter at the earliest. New jobless claims rose for the second straight week, disappointing "analysts" (financial weasels, like stock brokers, mortgage brokers and bankers, who make money whenever you spend yours).

But hey, there is some good news. One of those companies that got bail-out money (Morgan Stanley) will add as many as 400 professionals in trading and sales this year, said an anonymous person familiar with the hiring, who did not wish to be identified because the job additions were not formally announced.

Now, doesn't that make you feel better?

My prediction: The real recession is just getting started. False hopes and declarations of blue skies ahead will continue for a few months, and then ... even the more entrenched liars will have to admit what is happening. Once they do, the free fall of our economy will begin in earnest.